Walt Disney World crowds are controversial. But then again, isn’t everything these days?! Even though wait times at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom are what they are–60 minutes is objectively lower than 2 hours–the topic is actually more complicated than that for a few reasons.
One reason for this is that everyone has a different frame of reference or tolerance for crowds. What feels busy to me could be very different than your expectations. Even though wait times are what they are, some people may not think attractions–any of them–with hour-long waits qualifies as a day with low crowds. As a general rule, we find that first-timers are almost always surprised by crowds (and costs!) being worse than expected unless they have extensive experience with popular regional amusement parks like Six Flags and Cedar Point.
For longtime Disney diehards, prior visits play a big role in perceptions. Walt Disney World has had a veritable attendance roller coaster, with numbers increasing significantly by several million people over the course of the decade-plus culminating in 2019. Then attendance plummeted for a year-plus, spiked as a result of revenge travel for 2 years, and is now coming back to reality on the backside of pent-up demand.
Suffice to say, your individual perception of crowds may vary considerably based on when your prior trips occurred. It’s also possible that longtime Walt Disney World fans view the parks through the rose-colored glasses of nostalgia. We’ll be the first to admit that we personally do this! I would struggle to name negatives from our trips a decade ago.
Not because they were perfect (I have trip reports documenting the downsides), but because my mind filters out the bad and mostly just retains the good. That’s probably why so many of us are lifelong fans in the first place–but that’s another topic for another day.
Beyond this, there are also several other variables that can impact “feels like” crowds, including but not limited to festivals at EPCOT, weather, guest demographics, ride breakdowns, operational efficiency, wait times manipulation, youth sporting events, tour groups, and park operating hours. This is just a partial list, and all of those are significant variables right now.
It’s entirely possible that two families could visit during the same timeframe and have dramatically different experiences–not just differing perceptions of the same thing. Let’s say this were during Party Season, one chose park days poorly, had a more laid back approach, got stuck in lines behind youth sporting groups, and unlucky with ride breakdowns. The other chose parks wisely, followed savvy strategy to beat crowds, and got lucky with everything.
This may seem unlikely, but we see exactly this in the comments or via social media reactions almost every time we post wait times reports. Two readers, roughly the same dates, and radically different experiences. Without fail. It doesn’t even take “everything” going wrong. Visit during cheer season and end up in line for Haunted Mansion behind what feels like thousands of under-supervised tweens and that will be indelibly etched into your memory. (Okay, I lied about the negatives fading away–that is one I’ll never forget. We laugh at it now, but it was like ultra-strength birth control when it happened over a decade ago!)
Another is that crowds have become a heated issue as Disney has become a polarizing company. Some fans, former fans, or just random people view Walt Disney World attendance through a political lens. If it’s down, it’s a sign that their “side” is winning and boycotts or whatever is working. And vice-versa for the other side and higher crowds. Not to mention fans who feel a vested interest in the company, and cheer on higher attendance or even prices in the same way fans have become passionate about box office results.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. More on this and a bunch of other factors on the list itself. Let’s dig into the ways Walt Disney World fans can be wrong about crowds–in the form of specific quotes we’ve heard, followed by our rebuttals…
“There’s No Off-Season Anymore…”
For the last decade-plus, some fans have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” They said this when Magic Kingdom attendance was 18 million in 2013, in 2019 when it was 21 million, in 2021 when it was 13 million, and in 2023 when it was 18 million.
Despite the ups and downs – by several millions of guests per year (and even higher percentage changes for the other parks) – “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has been a popular refrain. This is largely because crowds were significantly lower during the Great Recession and operating hours were longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours were 3 hours?!)
Many longtime fans are coming at this from the perspective that ‘feels like’ crowds, across the board, are worse now than they were during comparable timeframes in 2008 to 2010, post-9/11, or pretty much anytime in the 1990s. But the average guest doesn’t have a time machine, so historical crowd levels are unhelpful. The operative question is whether there are currently meaningful differences in crowds and wait times over the course of the year. The answer is unequivocally yes.
The two busiest days of the last year were December 29-30, both of which averaged a 70 minute wait time across all attractions at Walt Disney World. That’s an astronomical number (remember, it counts everything that posts a wait time) that easily clears the bar for a 10/10 crowd level. A wait time 15 minutes lower would still be a 10/10! Zooming out a bit, the week between Christmas and New Year’s averaged a 61 minute wait time.
By contrast, the slowest two day stretch of the year was August 28-29, which had average wait times of 19 and 20 minutes, barely registering a 1/10 crowd level. That entire week was the slowest of the year, with a 23 minute average and 1/10 wait time. I don’t know about you, but I see a massive difference between 23 minutes and 61 minutes.
Let’s say we throw out the extremes, and compare mid-September to mid-October of last year. We’re still looking at a ~20 minute difference in averages. And that’s across the board, meaning that multiplied out by a half-dozen attractions throughout the day, you’re looking at 2 hours more (or less) spent waiting in line.
Look, I get why longtime fans grumble about current crowds and say there’s no off-season anymore. It’s frustrating that crowds are worse today than they were a decade or more ago. But at the same time, it’s inconsistent with reality to claim that there’s no such thing as an off-season when peak wait times can be double or triple the slow season.
“Wait Times Were Above an Hour…”
At the risk of belaboring the point, the numbers above are averages. The perpetual no or low wait attractions like Swiss Family Treehouse, Carousel of Progress, MuppetVision 3D, Vacation Fun, Country Bear Musical Jamboree–as well as other shows or films–are dragging down the numbers.
This means that if you’re doing only the “big” rides, your average wait time back on December 29-30 wouldn’t have been 70 minutes–it would’ve been well over 2 hours. In fact, the average wait time range for headliners on a 8/10 to 9/10 day is in that neighborhood: 90 to 120 minutes. It’s even worse on 10/10 days, nevermind 10+/10 days.
By contrast, the headliner average on 2/10 to 3/10 days is 65 to 75 minutes. That’s even as the resort-wide average is around 30 minutes. The bottom line is that below-average or low crowd levels do not mean every ride is a walk-on! You’ll still encounter long lines at TRON Lightcycle Run, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, Peter Pan’s Flight, Slinky Dog Dash, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Avatar Flight of Passage, etc–they just won’t be nearly as bad as during peak season. One hour is a lot less than two hours!
“We Were Packed Like Sardines for Fireworks…”
Unfortunately, uncomfortable congestion is the not-so-new normal for fireworks at Magic Kingdom. It was already bad with Disney Enchantment, and has only gotten worse since the good fireworks came back.
For the sake of illustration, let’s say that there are–on average–40,000 people in Magic Kingdom towards the end of a busy night. On a slower day, let’s say the number is 20,000 people–half the number of a busy day. Now let’s assume that 10,000 people fit on or around Main Street USA.
These are hypothetical numbers…but do you see the problem? Whether it’s a slow or busy night, the number of people wanting to see Happily Ever After exceeds the capacity of the viewing areas on and around Main Street. One is far above capacity and the other is “only” slightly above it. Nevertheless, when a high percentage of guests in the park are concentrated into a small area of Magic Kingdom, that’s going to create crowding, regardless of whether it’s a slow or busy day as a whole.
If you visit from August through December, it’s even worse due to the Halloween and Christmas Parties reducing the number of “free” fireworks per week. It’s still a math problem, but now you’re also introducing Park Hopping and several days’ worth of demand into a single night. There already isn’t enough capacity on a regular day, now imagine doubling it.
“30 Minutes of Early Entry is Useless…”
This is another one of those “burden of knowledge” scenarios. Too many Walt Disney World fans underestimate Early Entry, and are annoyed that it’s shorter than the defunct morning Extra Magic Hours. Many don’t use it at all, dismissing it as “only” 30 minutes and thus not worth the time.
To be sure, Early Entry is not that great at Magic Kingdom–at least, not until TRON Lightcycle Run (inevitably) joins the ride roster. That’s the one park where Lightning Lane Multi Pass makes the most sense and regular rope drop is just as good as Early Entry (maybe better). However, at 2 of the 4 parks, Early Entry is amazing. (At EPCOT, it’s only okay until Test Track reopens or Cosmic Rewind ditches the VQ.)
Between it and regular rope drop, you can often accomplish and save more time than an entire day with Lightning Lanes, and without spending any extra money. We have step-by-step strategies for Early Entry and park opening in our Guide to Early Entry at Walt Disney World.
“Magic Kingdom Was Nuts on… [Insert Day, Most Likely Monday]”
Fans underestimate just how much day of the week matters at Walt Disney World. Part of the reason the off-season is slow is because not everyone can visit when school is in session, or wants to visit when the weather is less-than-desirable.
But just about anyone can adjust their park days within the week they’re already planning on doing Walt Disney World. And few things make as much of a difference as simply shifting Magic Kingdom from a Monday to a Sunday. That alone will save you 5 minutes per attraction on average!
That may not seem like much given the above slow versus peak season contrast, but here we’re talking about one day to the next, every single week. We’re fairly confident that anyone embracing savvy strategy–like we espouse here–can easily knock out a dozen attractions a day at Magic Kingdom, meaning that 5 minutes is an hour less/more waiting in line!
Oh, and that’s also the average Sunday vs. Monday spread over the entire year. During Party Season, that spread is roughly 7-10 minutes. One of the biggest strategic blunders you can make is doing Magic Kingdom on a non-party Monday (or Wednesday and Saturday, for that matter) in November or December. (See Best & Worst Days to Do Magic Kingdom During Party Season.)
“EPCOT Was Wild on the Weekend…”
EPCOT is the biggest “local’s park” at Walt Disney World, and Floridians are more inclined to visit on Saturdays and Sundays when they’re off work or school. This is actually one scenario where fans are both wrong and right. EPCOT is wild on the weekends, or at least, it can be.
This is a scenario where analyzing wait time data can get you into trouble, as you might (incorrectly) conclude that EPCOT isn’t any worse on the weekends. That’s true from a quantitative perspective, but not from a qualitative one. Wait times don’t tell the full story–or even the main one–when it comes to EPCOT on weekends.
Since locals are less likely to do rides, they add to ‘feels like’ crowds and congestion at EPCOT on weekends without making attraction wait times noticeably worse. This is still a negative, as lines for food booths are longer and World Showcase is generally less pleasant on the weekends.
You’re also more likely to encounter groups Drinking Around the World on Saturday and Sunday, especially when UCF has away games in the fall. Like our Haunted Mansion cheerleader example above, we have vivid (negative) memories about World Showcase feeling like an open air frat party (thankfully, this isn’t as bad as it used to be). If this is your measure of wildness, EPCOT is 100% more wild on weekends. If wild is slang for ‘high wait times’ then EPCOT is actually wildest on Monday or Tuesday and least-wild on Thursday or Friday.
“Hotels Are Sold Out, So the Parks Must Be Crowded…”
Whenever Walt Disney World announces a new hotel or DVC resort, there’s a common complaint among fans that the parks are already too crowded. This shouldn’t bother me, as I agree with the animating idea that Disney should focus its resources on attractions and the things that make those hotels viable in the first place.
Yet I just cannot help myself, and often point out that most guests to the parks come from off-site. That Walt Disney World doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and that overall hotel inventory in Central Florida dictates crowds more than the on-site room count. That if demand for more lodging is there, someone is going to fill it. At least Disney building it provides the company with cashflow and an incentive to improve the parks (well, in theory).
A similar idea applies with Walt Disney World hotel occupancy numbers. Sold out hotels can be a sign of higher attendance, or just as easily can be a sign that there are major conventions or youth sporting events at or around Walt Disney World. Those demographics are less likely to visit the parks, so conventions or sporting events ‘blocking’ out rooms can arguably be a net positive for crowds.
All of this is discussed in greater detail in Why Are Walt Disney World Resorts Sold Out?, but the bottom line is that hotel occupancy is not a good proxy for crowds. (By its very nature, Disney Vacation Club is designed to operate at close to 100% occupancy–so no DVC resort availability is utterly meaningless.)
“ADRs Are All Gone…”
Very similar idea here as with sold out hotels. The key difference is that restaurant capacity is often even lower than hotel capacity and demand is often higher. Meaning that a lack of availability for Space 220 Lounge or Storybook Dining at Artist Point, which may be able to serve hourly guest counts measured in the dozens, is fairly meaningless.
The example we always used to give here is ADRs during the Free Dining ‘season’ of August and September. Reservations for even moderately popular restaurants would be scarce, as guests taking advantage of the discount gobbled up all of the ADRs. In turn, WDW planners would see this lack of availability and worry that crowds would be catastrophic. But they weren’t–those dates continued to be solidly off-season despite ADR availability (or rather, lack thereof).
All of this is past tense because Free Dining season this year was not bad at all. Eerily so. As a general matter, ADRs are becoming easier across the board, with the exception of hot tickets like the Candlelight Processional Dining Package. But again, that’s more a matter of limited supply than sky-high demand.
“I’ve Gone This Week Every Year for a Decade…”
“…And I’ve never seen Walt Disney World this busy!” Admittedly, this one is tough to explain away. Giving people the benefit of the doubt with statements like this (which are quite common on social media), I think there are a few factors at play.
One is that now versus 2019 or earlier is not an apples to apples comparison. Maybe they were FastPass+ power users who refuse to buy Lightning Lanes on principle (kudos to them–fight the good fight!). Maybe they got really unlucky, picking to visit each park on its busiest day, getting stuck behind big groups, encountering excessive ride breakdowns, etc. Maybe they’re viewing the past through the rose-colored glasses of nostalgia, remembering the good and forgetting the bad. (Do these same people say the same thing, without knowing it, almost every single year?)
Honestly, I don’t know how to fully explain away this. I don’t like to be dismissive, especially to fans with decades of experience, but the reality is that the numbers usually don’t support them–neither the overall attendance stats nor the year-over-year wait times. Sometimes they do, but historical crowd levels do not only go in the upward direction!
This isn’t just a claim on our part. During earnings calls, CEO Bob Iger and the CFO Hugh Johnston have stated openly that Walt Disney World attendance is down, and that trend will continue into at least early 2025 (probably longer given Epic Universe, but that’s us editorializing). They started saying the same thing last year, as soon as the 50th Anniversary was over. Suffice to say, 2024 is less busy than 2023, and 2023 was less busy than 2022. There are exceptions to that for certain days and weeks, but it’s true as an across-the-board generalization.
“Walt Disney World Isn’t Busy Because [Insert Personal Politics]”
There’s no denying that we live in politically polarized times. Or that Disney and Florida have found themselves at the epicenter (no, not EPCOT Center) of the culture wars. As a result, everyone wants to project their own personal politics as the explanation for lower or higher attendance.
Actually, no, not everyone wants to do this. The average guest is not an activist. They don’t much care or won’t alter their vacation plans due to politics. There’s a lot of bluster, but it’s coming from a vocal minority and maybe even that group’s own behavior doesn’t match their words.
There are easily a half-dozen better explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, especially since attendance trends have had ups and downs in the last couple of years. “Politics” doesn’t explain low crowds in September, but high ones come December. Unless everyone has a change of heart and gets into the spirit of the holiday season?
I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero impact on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt that some families have cancelled trips as a result of the perceived politics of Florida or Disney. We’ve heard from many who have! But conversely, I also suspect others have been enticed to visit as a result of Disney’s and/or Florida’s perceived politics. To this extent this is happening, it’s occurring at the margins or is a net zero, or close to it.
Frankly, there have been times when I’ve wanted attendance to take a hit following some of Walt Disney World’s most controversial changes. But even after they started charging for resort hotel parking, the end of Disney’s Magical Express, replacing free FastPass with paid Lightning Lanes, etc., business continued booming.
I wish some fans would’ve voted with their wallets to give Disney pause about these changes and reverse course, but I won’t confuse what I would’ve liked to see happen with what actually did. (Also, I’ll readily admit to being a hypocrite in this regard, since I did no such voting with my own wallet. Perhaps another lesson to be learned from the political controversies.)
There’s also the reality that we can look beyond Walt Disney World to see other trends happening (or not). For example, Orlando International Airport traffic has been through the roof setting record after record in the last year-plus. This suggests people are not avoiding Florida as a whole.
Moreover, Universal Orlando has seen an attendance slowdown that almost exactly mirrors that of Walt Disney World. (In fact, Comcast has stated the decline is larger during recent earnings calls.) Meanwhile, Disneyland attendance remained elevated for a full year after Walt Disney World started to slow down, while California’s tourism numbers also outperformed. You cannot reconcile all of that via politics without Simone Biles-caliber (mental) gymnastics.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment of Walt Disney World crowds? Think that we are actually the ones in the ‘wrong’ here, and fans who say any of the above are actually correct? Do you disagree entirely, and think Walt Disney World has been busier or less busy across the board than normal? Any other observations or explanations? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
