Disney Data Dump October 15 2025

Observed crowds from October 7th through 13th
Well hello there, orange bars!! The long weekend and beautiful weather combined to create a predictably crowded couple of days at Walt Disney World. It’s pretty rare for us to get crowd level 3 and 7 all in the same week, but here we are with fall crowds all descending at once.
Observed crowd levels by park from October 7th through 13th
It’s time for everyone’s favorite weekly game of “when were the Magic Kingdom parties?” The answers are obvious this week.
If you guessed the 7th, 9th, 10th, and 13th, you were correct! The difference between party days and non-party days this week was FIVE or SIX crowd levels. That’s about 5 hours of additional waiting on non-party days for the same basic Magic Kingdom itinerary. So, on party days, you’re able to spend 5 hours less in line, and do 5 hours of more attractions, characters, and entertainment!
Interestingly, we also see that other crowds aren’t emptying out when Magic Kingdom fills up for non-party days. Instead, everywhere is crowded.
Performance of Crowd Level Predictions
Each week, I give you a very transparent look into how the TouringPlans crowd level predictions performed. Each day at each park is one data point, so each week we have 28 different crowd level predictions to evaluate. Any time a prediction is within one or two crowd levels, things won’t really “feel” much different than what was predicted. Being off by 3 or more crowd levels is where you might feel that difference in wait times throughout the day.
Observed vs predicted crowd levels from October 7th through 13th
Holy beautiful pie chart, Batman! Look at that almost even coloring! In the past week, Touring Plans predictions were either spot-on or within 1 crowd level 61% of the time, which is slightly better than the past few weeks. 92% of the time Touring Plans predictions were within 2 crowd levels, so that means we get an A- for our predictions in the past week. Hooray! The two biggest misses of the week were an overprediction AND an underprediction of 3 crowd levels. On October 7th, Hollywood Studios was predicted to be crowd level 7, but only ended up at a 4. Conversely, on October 10th, EPCOT was predicted to be crowd level 4, but ended up at 7 instead.
Attraction Downtime October 7 – 13
If we average all of the capacity lost due to unexpected downtime over the past week, it comes out to 3.2% of attractions unexpectedly being down. That’s below our historical average, so yay for some more uptime. In the past week, Animal Kingdom was the park with the most overall downtime, averaging 4.3% of its capacity lost to downtime throughout the week. It’s never good when Animal Kingdom “wins” this category since it has so few attractions right now. But 4.3% isn’t too bad.
The worst day for attraction downtime in the past week was on October 11th. On that day, 4% of all capacity at WDW was lost due to unexpected downtime. And the worst park-day of the week is a predictable combination of our worst park and worst day – Animal Kingdom on October 11th. On that days, 14% of its attraction capacity was lost due to unexpected downtime! Ouch. Animal Kingdom was open for 11 hours on the 11th, so 14% downtime is the equivalent of the entire park shutting down for over 92 minutes that day. Thankfully, there are plenty of spots to explore around Animal Kingdom even if attractions are down and lines are long.
Attraction Downtime Worst Offender
In the past week, Space Mountain was the WDW attraction with the worst overall downtime. It was unexpectedly down for 17% of the past week. That’s a pretty low “winning” number for the week, and it finally breaks Test Track’s streak of always having the worst downtime! Huzzah! (In fact, Test Track “only” had 10% downtime in the past week). The worst day at Space Mountain was on October 13th, when it was down for 33% of the day. But it was also down for 30% of the day on the 7th.
Maybe the astronauts needed some breaks?
Rope Drop Downtime
Here are problematic offenders from the past week, with the percentage of downtime during the first hour of the day in parentheses:

Magic Kingdom: Tiana’s Bayou Adventure (29%), Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (17%), TTA PeopleMover (17%), Space Mountain (15%), Pirates of the Caribbean (11%)
EPCOT: Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure (29%), Mission: Space (15%)
Hollywood Studios: Rise of the Resistance (22%)
Animal Kingdom: Dinosaur (10%)

Hollywood Studioooooooooooos, look at that showing! Only Rise of the Resistance on the early downtime list this week. That’s a big deal. Very rare.
EPCOT also wasn’t terrible this week, but Remy downtime at rope drop is not good news for folks entering from the International Gateway, because that’s absolutely the best option for them.
No gold stars this week. Bummer.
Wait Times October 7 – 13
Attractions with the Highest Average Posted Wait at Each Park

EPCOT: Cosmic Rewind, average posted wait of 93 minutes (was 68 minutes at Test Track last week)
Hollywood Studios: Slinky Dog Dash, average posted wait of 79 minutes (was 56 minutes last week)
Animal Kingdom: Flight of Passage, average posted wait time of 75 minutes (was 50 minutes last week)
Magic Kingdom: TRON, average posted wait time of 71 minutes (was 53 minutes last week)

Those are some BIG increases from last week, and they’re even slightly deceptive because most of the crowds all happened during the weekend. If we narrow down just to the weekend, those averages become:

Cosmic Rewind – 119 minutes
Tron – 100 minutes
Flight of Passage – 94 minutes
Slinky Dog Dash – 90 minutes

Keep in mind, those are average posted waits, from early entry through park close. Peak posted waits in the middle of the day were much higher! Long weekends in the fall are not the time to visit Disney, if your goal is to avoid waits.
Parks with the Highest and Lowest Average Wait
These parks likely won’t change week-to-week unless something crazy happens, but these data points will give us a high-level view of how wait times are trending from week to week.

Highest: Hollywood Studios, average park-wide posted wait of 41 minutes (was 28.5 minutes at EPCOT last week)
Lowest: Magic Kingdom, average park-wide posted wait of 25 minutes (was 18.5 minutes last week)

Look at those increases too! We’ve seen so many weeks all summer and early fall where every park had overall average posted waits under half an hour. And this week we had two parks (Hollywood Studios and EPCOT) blow right past that milestone and all the way up above 40 minutes!
Most Inflated Posted Wait Times
We all know that Disney inflates their posted wait times on purpose. They have many reasons for doing this. Some are totally understandable, and some are potentially more problematic. We can figure out how much posted wait times are being inflated by comparing submitted actual wait times from the Lines App and the posted wait time when the person timing their wait entered the line.
Over the past week, actual wait times in the Lines App averaged 76% of what was posted. That’s much higher than our historical average, which means posted waits were quite a bit less inflated than normal. So, actual wait times were closer to what was posted, and crowds were therefore just as bad as the posted wait times would imply. Overall, if the posted wait time at a popular attraction was 60 minutes, you could’ve expected to wait less about 46 minutes instead.
But the worst inflation offender for the past week was back at Gran Fiesta Trou. At this one attraction, submitted actual wait times were only 49% of posted wait times in the past week. That means that if Gran Fiesta Tour had a 15 minute posted wait, you probably would have actually only waited about 7.5 minutes instead. Less than half of what was posted! Remember to always check the Lines app for predicted actual waits instead of making decisions based on what is posted.
The best World Showcase ride, ever since Maelstrom closed. Prove me wrong!
This Week’s Wait Time Rock Star
Between October 7th and 13th, we had just over 1200 timed actual waits submitted through the Lines app. The one person who recorded the most actual waits during that time was passesforsix, with 37 overall timed waits: 2 Lightning Lane waits, 31 standby waits, and 4 single rider waits. Thanks for all of that timing, passesforsix! It unfortunately does not compete with the the 97 timed waits in a single week from our current timing champion, preef.
Looking Ahead: October 14 – 20
I write this article on Tuesday evenings so that you all have the very freshest of data on Wednesdays. That means the 14th will already be in the past by the time you’ve read this, so welcome to the future!
We all know what the biggest driver of crowd patterns this week is going to be, right? Right! Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. Party dates are October 14th, 16th, 17th, and 19th. That means October 15th and 18th are surrounded by three party days. Avoid Magic Kingdom on those days. The park will be slammed, and spots for nighttime spectaculars will fill up very far in advance!
This upcoming weekend is another time where Disney has tinkered with park hours. Animal Kingdom gets a few 7 pm closings, and Magic Kingdom opens at 8 am even on non-party days. That points to Disney expecting more crowds again, so be prepared.
The weather for this week looks spectacular! Highs in the low or mid 80s, with no rain in the forecast. Should be a gorgeous time to be in the (crowded) parks.
I’ll be down in Orlando this weekend! But no park time for me. I’ll be checking out my first-ever Club Level room. If you’re wondering if Club Level prices are ever statistically “worth it” … no. But I’ve got to at least try. For science. Clearly.
Were you in the parks this past week? Or are you headed to Orlando soon? Let me know in the comments below!

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