By Robert Niles: Universal Orlando is opening its new theme park one month from today. But is this turning out to be a terrible time for opening a new, multi-billion-dollar theme park?Universal Epic Universe opens officially on May 22. That’s around the start of the summer vacation season, which has been losing popularity in recent years as rising heat and humidity has been making Central Florida increasingly uncomfortable during the summer. Still, summer means “no school,” so for many families, that remains the best time of the year to plan a vacation, regardless of weather.Even if many theme park fans would rather visit the Central Florida parks at some other time of the year, opening a new park at the start of summer is not necessarily a bad call. Not having to face maximum demand right at opening can help a new park’s team get up to full speed comfortably. Epic will have had nearly two months of previews before opening officially, but every day of practice helps before having to face a full-capacity, holiday-level crowd for the first time. So the “May” is not so much the problem for Epic and Universal as the “2025” is turning out to be. International travel into the United States is collapsing. Many visitors from Canada and other countries that typically drive substantial traffic to Central Florida have canceled their vacation plans for 2025 and beyond. At the same time, fears of rising prices and reduced demand are driving fears of a recession within the United States. That has many domestic travelers rethinking their plans for this summer, too.Typically, a recession means a weaker U.S. dollar, which has encouraged international visitors to America, as a weak dollar makes it cheaper for them to visit here. But with many international visitors wanting nothing to do with the United States under its current leadership, that travel industry safety value is no longer open.That said, Universal owner Comcast did not invest multiple billions of dollars into Epic Universe for the 2025 season. Or for 2026, or for the next handful of years. Comcast and NBCUniversal built Epic Universe for the next several generations of theme park fans, creating an expanded Orlando resort that the company hopes will become as popular as rival Walt Disney World has become over the past 50-some years.Comcast would love to open Epic Universe to a comfortable capacity every single day of the year, for all those years to come. And it would love for those visitors all to be big spenders – filling its on-site hotels and buying out every souvenir and experience Universal offers, from Power-Up Bands to monster make-up sessions to Harry Potter interactive wands. But unless the downturn that many fear is coming becomes permanent, Universal Orlando can afford to open to less-than-full crowds for a while.Heck, if more people’s first impression of Epic comes in a year or two, when more of the park’s landscaping grows in, they might be more pleased with the park than they might be at the moment now, when the spaces in between everything are a bit, uh, sparse.But I suspect that many million of fans will find their way to Epic in 2025, even if that crowd skews more toward domestic visitors than Universal first expected. Based on initial previews, Epic looks like a strong challenger to become the nation’s best theme park, and that is exciting fans. It’s everyone else in the industry that needs to be worried.Disney is fighting back against Epic in the short term with a new night parade and shows at the Walt Disney World Resort. Long term, Disney is working on a new Tropical Americans land at Disney’s Animal Kingdom and Villains Land at the Magic Kingdom to remind fans why Walt Disney World has earned its place as the world’s most popular theme park destination.Six Flags and SeaWorld long have provided affordable alternatives to destination parks such as Disney and Universal. But what happens if people decide that they would rather skip frequent visits to their local park to save up for one trip to Universal? The new park just might entice some fans to think about that switch. Universal Orlando also has long offered more affordable on-site hotels than Walt Disney World (at least, for people who have not bought into Disney Vacation Club). Could Universal swipe some Disney World fans who are looking more aggressively to save some money this year?For what it’s worth, there’s no point in arguing about why America facing this economic mess at the moment. (Or, to say “we told you so,” as much as I and others may find that emotionally tempting.) It is what it is now, and everyone has to deal with it, including the nation’s theme parks and travel industries.So as much as some analysts may fear that this will be a bad year for Florida tourism, I think that Epic will end up making its case to become one of the top destinations for theme park fans in the United States. But Epic might also turn out to be a lonely bright spot in what could turn out to be a very bad year for the American theme park and travel industries.To keep up to date with more travel and theme park news and analysis, please sign up for Theme Park Insider’s weekly newsletter.
